Computer Industry Predictions from 7B Software, Inc.
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Computer Industry Predictions |
(8/20/2002) The DMCA will create an opposition force that is basically underground, consisting of the ACLU, the EFF, the ACM, and hobbyist and open source programmers. Laws regarding reverse engineering and DRM will become more strict, culminating in a proposal to require all programmers to have a license. The proposal will fail, but it will help to galvanize the opposition to the DMCA.
Update 2/10/2004 As of this writing, laws governing reverse engineering and DRM have not become more strict. They haven't had to. They are having a sufficiently chilling effect without needing any more strength. See for example Eric Raymond's diatribe at his Fedora Multimedia HOWTO. I agree completely with Eric and would like any legislator who runs across this page to strongly consider repealing this DMCA. And get rid of the stupid Patriot Act while you're at it, too. Holy cow. Could you have done anything else to convince the entire world that the US is full of troglodytes?
Update 4/15/2009 The DMCA seems to have faded in importance at this point. You rarely hear it debated any more, probably because the far more draconian measures that the Bush administration took over the course of his presidency were far more chilling than any computer-related information restrictions. I also have the sense that, in large part, the Open Source community has just ignored the issue and gone on with their work as if the DMCA doesn't even exist.
(8/20/2002) SELinux will fail. Microsoft Palladium and the TCPA will make it OBE. Palladium will overhang the high assurance security market--it will not have to be fielded to kill SELinux. But the poor faith of the NSA and the US government will have as much to do with the failure of SELinux as Microsoft. (The government will not provide the crucial high demand that is required to sustain the development of SELinux.)
Update 2/10/2004 Several Linux distributions have already incorporated SELinux: Gentoo and Debian. But Fedora is planning to integrate SELinux into Core 2, with RedHat to follow for its Enterprise distribution. This is huge news. It implies that a large government demand may not be necessary to sustain the effort. Still, the proof is in the pudding: Will there be an SELinux on every RedHat server machine? Or will the trickiness of configuring the policies make it too hard to deal with?
Update 4/15/2009 As of this writing, SELinux is a kind of security hacker's toy. Everyone I know of who uses Linux for serious work turns it off, lest it hinder real work. Theodore T'so famously has said, "Life is too short for SELinux."
(8/20/2002) Linux will never capture a critical mass on the desktop. Monopolistic forces will see to that. This will be true despite the existence of easy to use, cheap or free, desktop and office applications for Linux.
Update 4/15/2009 Never is a big word, but as of this writing, a Linux desktop is still a pipedream. Macs are gaining inroads, owing to fantastic advertising; and Microsoft is starting to look desperate; but desktop Linux has no mindshare to speak of.
(8/20/2002) RSA will be broken by 2010 by a quantum computer. But the general public won't know about it until several years later, as the first practical quantum computers with enough qubits to do it will be as highly classified as any nuclear secret.
Update 4/15/2009 It occurs to me that my prediction is unprovable--how would we know if the NSA has such a beast if they won't tell us? Having said that, I now think that we're probably 20 to 30 years away from a practical quantum computer.
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